Post Google “…it’s just Not a Meaningful Driver of our Traffic”

We’ve been saying since 2023 that Google will eventually get to a point where they no longer consider sending traffic to websites to be a core function of the site. Sounds like the rest of the web is catching up. Here we go:

Roger Lynch, CEO of Condé Nast, recently warned that generative AI summaries are rapidly eroding search traffic for publishers. The company behind titles such as Vogue, Wired, and The New Yorker is already preparing for a future where search engines no longer drive meaningful traffic to its sites.

His assessment is clear:

“We assume very dramatic continued declines in search traffic, to the point where in a couple of years it’s just not a meaningful driver of our traffic.”

Well Duh: AI Overviews Are Changing User Behavior

A Pew Research study  last year found that:

• When an AI Overview appears, only 1% of users click a cited link
• Without an AI summary, about 15% of users click a result
• Links appearing below an AI answer receive about 8% click-through

Condé Nast Is Already Planning a Post-Search Future

Condé Nast is not waiting for search traffic to collapse before responding.  Lynch has acknowledged that the company is shifting its strategy away from dependency on search referrals. Just a few years ago, search engines delivered the majority of visits to Condé Nast sites. Today that share has dropped dramatically.

The company’s plan going forward focuses on areas where it can control audience relationships directly:

• subscriptions
• direct readership
• licensing deals with AI platforms
• brand-driven media properties

Despite declining search traffic, Condé Nast reported improved profitability and stable revenue. That suggests to us, that a broader shift is already underway in digital publishing.

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AI Licensing Deals Are Becoming the New Traffic Strategy

Another major change is how major publishers go about monetizing their content in the new (so called, “enshittification” of Google) AI era.

Publishers argue that AI systems are extracting value from their content without returning traffic. Condé Nast has already signed licensing agreements with multiple AI companies, including OpenAI and Amazon. These agreements allow AI systems to use publisher content legally while compensating the publishers.

Interestingly, the company has not reached a similar agreement with the largest search platform deploying AI summaries (aka Google).   That tension highlights a growing conflict between publishers and search platforms.

The Opt-Out Problem for Publishers

One of the most controversial issues raised by Lynch involves the current opt-out model for AI scraping. Lynch described the situation as deeply problematic.

Publishers are forced to choose between:

• losing visibility in search
• or allowing their content to power AI answers

That dilemma has become a central policy debate for all  SEO’s and sites in the AI search era.

The Bigger Picture: Search Is Becoming an Answer Layer

The Condé Nast warning reflects a larger transformation in the entier info  ecosystem. Search engines historically acted as info and entertainment discovery platforms. They sent users to publisher websites where the actual content lived.

For many publishers, traffic may no longer be the primary metric of success.

What Comes Next

If the Condé Nast prediction proves accurate, the next few years will reshape all of digital marketing:

Some outcomes include:

• more AI licensing deals between big city publishers and AI content mining platforms
• increased reliance on subscriptions and direct audiences – paywalls, blockers – etc.
• regulatory battles over content usage and attribution

One thing is clear. The traditional search traffic model that powered the web for 25 years is being relegated to history.

And the people who built their businesses on search – well – the time  to act was several years ago, but here we are, sigh, here we are…